Thoughts and musings from my desk to you.

Tax Loophole

There’s much wisdom in exercising caution when stirring up things long undisturbed. Politicians often run amok in efforts to garner “points” with their constituents. In this case, Mr. Biden ought to have let sleeping dogs lie. His recent attempt to discard the Step-up in Basis Rule, a popular tax loophole, was met with understandable resistance, and he has since relented.

Percentage Returns Are Not Created Equal

There is nothing more mesmerizing than eye-popping percentage returns. While investors equate high returns to transactional intelligence, studies routinely show that randomness and luck are the far more likely explanations. Investors often don’t fully appreciate that all percentage returns are not created equal.

Direct Indexing: “New” Trend We’ve Been Doing for Decades

Segment’s strategies are grounded in decades of experience of dealing with things as they are and not as we wish them to be. Sometimes this puts us twenty years ahead of the crowd.  With 2021 came a “new” trend: Direct Indexing!

Tax Rule Changes: Build Back Better Act

The language surrounding the Build Back Better Act suggests that it’s time for the rich to “pay their fair share.” But it is important to remember that 61% of all Americans pay no taxes. This vulnerability was addressed over 190 years ago, when Alexis de Tocqueville warned that the eventuality of non-taxpayers voting for the taxation of others would ultimately be America’s undoing. But don’t lose heart. We have been on such a brink before, and we voted in low-tax Ronald Reagan as a result.

Profound Power Of The Unrealized Gain

Unrealized gains have a benefit that doesn’t show up in percentage return.

Money managers and hedge funds hang their hats on their trading prowess and the glory of periodic home runs. Any success they have provides good cover for the high expenses endemic in the business.

Inflation? Yes, Then No.

Twenty-five years ago, I had an archery deer lease in Refugio County, Texas. One time, I headed down there after a long day at work and arrived at Two-J’s Restaurant just at closing time. The place was empty, but they seated me anyway and promptly delivered my order. The waitress asked me what I did for a living and then pressed me about my economics degree. After pondering a bit, she returned a short time later and pulled up a chair. She then asked me a profound and now poignant question: “How come the government doesn’t just print twice as much money and make it so that I can have more?” I replied, “Because with two times the money and the same amount of productivity, each one of your dollars is then worth 50 cents.” She seemed to understand.

Advisory Practice Evolution

Gil penned a piece describing the evolution of his billion-dollar advisory practice in Financial Advisor Magazine!

“Many advisors get stuck in the path of least resistance methods and never evolve to scale.”

“Over my nearly four decades as an advisor, I’ve seen quite an evolution in my practice. There was a day when I would take on new clients with $2,000 IRAs, and I would buy securities for them as their whims dictated. I figured out what they thought worked, and I aligned my recommendations to their biases. My goal was to amass assets and aligning with client predispositions seemed the path of least resistance. But I began to realize that my practice would have no common themes if I allowed it to develop this way.”

Predictably Irrational Investing

The field of economics has long assumed that people make decisions that optimize their own utility, and to derive the greatest benefit for themselves. However, psychological studies show that we humans do not do this, but rather we often make irrational choices, and we do so predictably. In this case, irrational investing choices.

Don't Overvalue Dividends

Gil published a piece in Advisor Perspectives entitled "Don’t Overvalue Dividends."

“My advisory firm is a big fan of stocks that pay dividends. Segment’s tax-efficient rising dividend portfolio is our most popular strategy. But if you dig into the numbers, the dividends our holdings pay are not huge. This is because we manage for total return, not maximum cash flow.

We buy stocks with a mind toward dividend sustainability and a history of payment hikes. This contrasts with normal bias toward dividend shopping, where one would simply buy the highest-yielding companies as though nothing else mattered.”

The Great Inflation Debate

Signs of inflation abound with chip shortages, car shortages, and sky-high lumber prices, among others. Many forecasters are predicting 70s style inflation or even stagflation. Given the similarities in Jimmy Carter’s and Mr. Biden’s policies, it’s a valid concern.