Blog

Thoughts and musings from my desk to you.

Recession? Who Knows?

Recession? Who Knows?

Market Volatility, stock market

Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that “the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions.” This tongue-in-cheek expression reflected his view of jumpy stock investors’ impact on the market, who pile in and out, often letting fear win out over fact.

Current tea leaf readings might have one conclude that a recession is imminent, and that may be true. The bond market gives pretty reliable clues, an inverted yield curve among the most notable.

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Expect to Bleed at the Cutting Edge

Expect to Bleed at the Cutting Edge

Behavioral Finance, Investing, stock market

It is quite fun to try to predict the future and invest in companies in the sweet spot of your prognostications. Investing in long-term growth trends with short-term dislocations is a viable strategy, and we do this often. But finding the “next big thing” is entirely different and is fraught with pitfalls. Such positioning comes with great peril because the future is not that predictable. More importantly, it is also likely that other investors share your view already and beating you to the punch is what causes FOMO and will likely cause you to overpay.

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Roller Coaster Market 2022

Roller Coaster Market 2022

inflation, Market Volatility, stock market

The market continues its roller coaster ride for 2022. Typical stock mutual funds are down 20%. This decline is problematic enough, but adding insult to injury, taxes are about to make it worse for fund owners.

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Rising Rates

Rising Rates

economy, inflation, stock market

The poor economic policy of the past is coming home to roost in the form of rising rates and spiraling inflation. To make matters worse, policy leaders spent months gaslighting us all, denying inflation’s presence when the signs were in plain sight. This lag in taking action has surely exacerbated the situation because it’s best to nip inflation in the bud before it blooms. Too late for that.

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Investor Trendspotting

Investor Trendspotting

Investing, stock market

One of the greatest misconceptions investors have embedded in their psyche is the assumption that predictions about the future are accurate or even valuable. I struggle with it too.

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Gil's Musings

Learn about the world of investing from a 38-year industry veteran. Gil's Musings are inspired by Gil's thoughts on timely finance topics, stock market trends and the psychology behind smart investments.

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